Understanding our workforce data

Key points

• Shortage estimates are not targets. Full growth is not realistic due to workforce availability and cost. But they do show that we need to work better to address the strain our workforce faces.
• Most data covers Health NZ staff, with limited visibility into the wider sector. Contributions from primary and community partners have improved estimates, especially in pharmacy.
• Where we do not have better data, we assume community sector vacancy rates match hospitals. This is not always the case. This method may wrongly signal an improvement in supply where labour flows disproportionately from the primary and community sector into Health NZ.
• Our data and modelling assumes our health system will look the same tomorrow as it does today. We know this will not be true.
• Frictional vacancies, temporary gaps during job transitions, inflate vacancy rates by 3 to 4%.

Efforts are underway to improve data and forecasting over the next 3 years.

Areas where we have improved our estimates and data since 2023/24

• Workforce estimates have improved by using insights from community pharmacy and mental health and addiction experts.
• Input from frontline staff and leaders helped refine the data and better link workforce gaps to service pressures.
• We used new internal models to better estimate workforce need.

As a result, figures from this plan and 2023/24 are not always directly comparable. We expect consistency to improve over time.

We have used 3 key data sources to develop these estimates.

1. Health NZ region workforce data, including vacancy rates.
2. Information from health profession regulators and professional bodies that issue annual practicing certificates.
3. Data from partners in the primary and community sector.

These sources were used to make informed estimates, based on specific assumptions in each analysis.

Assumptions behind the workforce analysis

Current shortage data is presented as full-time equivalents (FTEs). We use vacancy rates as a stand-in for unmet workforce demand, which we know is an imperfect assumption.

When specific data is missing for primary and community care, we assume the workforce profile is like ours. We extrapolate data using our vacancy rates, and the latest regulatory or professional body data on total workforce size.

2033 shortage data assumes no unexpected changes in:

• population needs
• technology
• infrastructure
• models of care.

We know that changes to the above are likely.

We have not modelled in the impacts of the actions in this plan, including addressing current pressures.

We are working to improve this data for future use. 

The Health Workforce Information Programme (HWIP) is the source of this plan’s data. HWIP collects data from regions as at the end of each quarter. The plan uses data as at 31 March 2024, for seasonal consistency with the Health Workforce Plan 2023/24.

Data only includes permanent, funded full-time equivalent (FTE) — where one FTE equals 2,086 hour per year. This means the data does not include:

• casual staff
• contractors
• people on parental leave or leave without pay
• overtime.

Canterbury and West Coast districts do not report vacancy data. We use national averages to estimate theirs to avoid under-reporting. In some cases, this plan's vacancy rates may be more than other Health NZ sources which do not include an extrapolated vacancy factor.

Headcount, FTE and vacancy data is reported as a total of region payroll data, excluding Health NZ national offices. For the purposes of the plan, we do not think this results in a material exclusion of workforces covered.

Vacancy rates are based on:

• funded roles that are actively being recruited within 6 months
• permanent positions part of the FTE allocation, if applicable
• vacancies that still exist when temporarily filled.

Data is grouped by Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO) codes. But job title searches are used to differentiate workforces where required.

The 2033 health workforce forecasts estimate future supply and demand, 10 years from the point of calculation. The forecasts use data and algorithms that factor in recent age-related workforce trends.

Supply projections rely on yearly data from:

• responsible authorities — mandated under the Health Practitioners Competence Assurance Act 2003
• medical schools
• professional bodies.

Demand is based on expected population changes and age-related demand for relevant services.

Because of this method, this data does not:

• cover all workforces — we cannot analyse workforces with newer responsible authorities or those without one using this method
• break down all medical specialties in detail
• account for workforce changes due to anything other than age, such as cultural shifts in work habits
• consider changes in healthcare models, technology, or specific health conditions beyond population growth.

Pharmacy

The Pharmacy Guild collected survey data in March and April 2024 to estimate vacancy rates for community pharmacists. The survey covered about 10% of pharmacies and was used to represent the whole sector. We are not able to confirm the survey is representative, but we are confident this is more reliable than using our data alone.

Mental health and addictions

Workforce size and vacancy estimates for mental health and addiction services in the primary and community sector come from a blend of:

• Te Pou’s 2022 NGO workforce survey
• our data for significant hospital and specialist workforces employed by us.

The combined data was published in October 2023, though some of it was collected earlier.

2022 NGO workforce survey — Te Pouexternal link